Friday, December 4, 2009

လတ္တေလာကေနဒါလူ၀င္မႈဆိုင္ရာသိေကာင္းစရာတခ်ဳိ႕..




Longer lines and surprises in the plan for 2010

METRO CANADA
In Parliament on Friday, Immigration Minister Jason Kenney tabled his immigration plan for 2010.

Although the overall target will remain the same as in 2009 — 240,000-265,000 new immigrants — there will definitely be some big winners and losers in the year to come.

The big winners in the immigration game this year are the provinces, Quebec in particular, which will be handed the right to pick an even greater percentage of Canada’s immigrants than they have in the past.

In 2008, we accepted 43,360 skilled workers who came to Canada accompanied by 60,376 spouses and children. This overall total will drop to about 101,000 from 103,700 in 2010, with a greater percentage being reserved for those destined for Quebec. What is truly surprising about this number is that immigration experts expected the skilled worker program would be reduced so that the immigration department can allow for increased numbers in the Canadian Experience Class, which was introduced in September, 2008. The immigration department allowed for 5,000-7,500 immigrants to be landed in this category in 2009. However, it is only planning to admit 2,670-2,856 in this category in 2010. Most expected that the CEC would expand and the skilled worker program would contract. Inexplicably, the opposite is being planned.

Our once-proud business immigration program will continue to take a beating in 2010. In 2008, Canada received 447 entrepreneurs (who promised to start a business here), 164 “self-employed” individuals (farmers, and those contributing to artistic or cultural life in Canada) and 2,831 investors (who gave our government an interest-free loan of $400,000 for five years). Including their dependants, this group of 12,400 in 2008 will drop further to 10,800-11,620 individuals, a 6.5-13 per cent reduction.

So much for attracting foreign capital to stimulate our sagging economy.

Nannies should be smiling as their numbers could increase by nearly nine per cent in 2010. In 2008, 6,157 nannies were landed here with 4,300 dependants in tow. While this number is welcome given the fact that we have an aging society and more in-home care is needed, this number is hard to reconcile with a mere 3,442 business immigrants landed in 2008.

In 2008, Canada landed 21,860 refugees and is planning to land anywhere from 19,600-26,000 in 2010. I am betting that the actual number will be closer to the lower number than the higher, leading to a drop rather than a gain.

Also, it looks like humanitarian applications will be harder to get approved. Such applications are usually made by those who are here for a long time without status and are ultimately allowed to stay. In 2008, we accepted 10,627 in this category. This number will definitely drop to anywhere from 7,000-9,000 i.e. a huge drop in compassion of about 15-34 per cent.

Finally, I have some advice for those Canadians who might be falling in love with someone overseas. You will need more patience in 2010 because the line for sponsoring spouses (and any children) will be getting even longer. In 2008, we sponsored 47,451 spouses and children. In 2010, the immigration department has only budgeted for 42,000-45,000. With our growing population, it is hard to understand why the department would think Canadians would need to sponsor fewer spouses and children next year. In fact, the 42,000 figure hasn’t been seen in Canada since before 2003. Typically the department will stick to their numbers regardless of our needs. As usual, we will just have to be patient.

That is the plan for 2010.


Applying for a study permit can be a tricky situation

Q. I entered Canada with a visitor’s visa and wish to extend my stay for a two-year study program. I have successfully enrolled in a university and have enough funds to cover tuition, accommodation and any medical needs.

Why is the law such that I need to leave Canada and re-enter as a student? Can’t the study permit simply be processed from within Canada using the forms available online?

A. Explaining how to apply for your study permit is a lot easier than explaining to you why it must be done that way, especially when I don’t believe this procedure makes a lot of sense in most situations.

Unfortunately, many visitors in Canada are too late in learning what you already know. While in Canada as visitors, they try to convert their status to student, which of course they can’t normally do. They waste precious months before being told by the Case Processing Centre in Vegreville that it cannot process the study permit application from within Canada. Often in such situations, it is too late to reapply at a visa post outside Canada in time for the beginning of the school year. In some cases, they even fall out of status while waiting in futility.

Some foreigners may submit an inland application for a study permit -- i.e. holders of a valid work or study permit and their family members, holders of temporary resident permits (TRPs) which are valid for a minimum of six months and their family members, those who have been approved-in-principle for permanent residence as live-in-caregivers, spouses and common law partners, protected persons and humanitarian applicants, and persons who are subject to unenforceable removal orders.

Most others must submit an application outside of Canada and if successful, must be admitted as students at a Canadian port-of-entry.

A study permit may be renewed from within Canada if the application is timely, the applicant has not violated any of the terms and conditions of their prior permit, and is in good standing at the educational institution at which they are studying. If a timely application for renewal has been made, the applicant may continue to study after the expiry of the permit, provided they continue to otherwise comply with the terms of their expired permit.

Confusion may be caused by the fact that the form used to extend visitors status in Canada has a box that you can tick off stating that you are applying for "An initial study permit or extension of a study permit." However, such use of this form is limited to those who are exempted from applying from outside Canada.

I suppose that if immigration officials were pressed to explain the rationale for this overseas requirement, they would cite "program integrity" as the reason, meaning it is easier for officers at our Canadian visa posts abroad to assess these applications since they are closer to the action there. In other words, officers in Canada would be hampered in doing background checks due to their relative unfamiliarity with documents, institutions, and conditions abroad, and also by possible differences in time zones which may make inquiries from here more difficult.

However, this explanation must be tempered by the fact that there are many officers in Canada who, on a daily basis, process temporary as well as permanent resident applications entirely from within Canada and who are, presumably, able to overcome these obstacles.

Whatever the reason might be, we must remember that common sense and consistency don’t always rule the day when it comes to the immigration process. It’s better to be guided by the act, regulations, and policy manual than by logic or intuition.

The results usually turn out much better that way.



Ottawa introduces new rules for skilled worker applications

On June 15, Citizenship and Immigration Canada disclosed how it plans on processing Federal Skilled Worker applications in a year or less.

Under our “old system” -- those cases that were received before February 27, 2008 -- such cases took two to six years on average to process. All applications were sent to a visa post that served the applicant’s country of nationality or residence. Visa posts were never obligated to finalize an application within a certain amount of time. They often estimated how long the process might take but were often wrong. Cases languished, and a backlog measured in the hundreds of thousands resulted. Our immigration department often found itself working on files that were old, that needed updating, and that involved applicants who had lost interest in coming to Canada.

A new regime dubbed an “Action Plan for Faster Immigration” was announced on Nov. 28, 2008 which had retroactive application to all cases submitted after Feb. 27, 2008. This plan was accompanied by an undertaking by Immigration Minister Jason Kenney to process these new cases in six to twelve months.

Such cases are now being screened by a new Centralized Intake Office (CIO) in Sydney, Nova Scotia. The CIO receives the application fee, creates a computer file, and enters key data into its computer system. It also assesses the work experience claimed by the applicant.

The CIO sends a letter to those applicants that do not qualify stating that they are ineligible and that a refund will be forthcoming.

If the CIO determines that the applicant appears to qualify, it transfers the applicant’s electronic data to the appropriate visa post and sends a letter to the applicant stating that all supportive materials must be sent to that visa post within 120 days.

The operational bulletin released on June 15 explains how the visa post will ensure that the six to twelve month processing target will be achieved.

Firstly, applicants are being advised through the online application guide that they should not start the process if they are not able to submit all of the expected documents to the visa post within 120 days. The kit states that “visa offices are strictly enforcing the 120-day rule and will not provide extensions.” Legally speaking, CIC must entertain requests for extensions but applicants should not count on getting them easily.

Applicants who miss the 120-day deadline will not be sent a reminder. Officers will “make final determinations quickly in the absence of any submission.” In other words, if you’re late, expect a quick refusal.

If the visa officer receives the material within 120 days, they will review the material “as-is.” If the applicant’s documents are poor in quality, are incomplete, or fail to prove some aspect of the applicant’s experience or credentials, the officer will not be asking for clarification or better supportive documents. Instead, they will simply refuse the application.

Any documents received after a final determination of eligibility will simply be ignored.

This no-nonsense and unforgiving approach may be quick, but applicants whose documents fall short in the slightest way may find themselves going through this process more than once.




A refusal of permanent residence can have unexpected effects

The refusal of an application for permanent residence can have some unexpected effects -- like cutting one off from their relatives in Canada.

A young professional woman -- let’s call her Ruth -- visited her family in Canada regularly since she had a five-year visitor’s visa affixed to her passport.

She then decided to try and join her parents and siblings in Canada permanently, finding a Canadian employer who provided her with a letter which would confirm to immigration officials that she had arranged employment in Canada. The letter was then verified and approved by Services Canada, entitling her to 10 points, plus another five “adaptability points" towards the 67 she needed to qualify for permanent residence under the Federal Skilled Worker program.

Ruth obtained professional help to assist her with the filing of her application for permanent residence at the Canadian embassy in her home country.

She was confident that her application would be approved because she appeared to qualify and had done everything by the book. Her application was submitted and she waited patiently while all of the processing steps unfolded normally.

Then she was interviewed at the visa office.

The officer told Ruth that her application would be refused since she was somehow short on points. A letter setting out the reasons in detail would soon follow.

While she was trying to absorb the full impact of this sudden turn of events, the officer gave her even worse news. He took her passport and told her that he was cancelling her Canadian visitor’s visa, which she had never abused or violated. According to the officer, this was standard procedure following a refusal of an application for permanent residence.

She was in shock.

While Ruth tries to figure out what she will do next, other applicants in similar circumstances should take note that this scenario is not uncommon.

I am often asked by prospective applicants if they can be punished by the Canadian visa office if they make an application that is refused. The short answer is no, unless the person is found to have made a misrepresentation in connection with that application which would render them inadmissible to Canada for two years from the date of the refusal letter.

Having said this, foreigners should be as certain as they can be that they qualify in every possible way before they apply for permanent residence since there can be unintended consequences flowing from a refusal.

By submitting an application for permanent residence, Ruth demonstrated a desire to live here permanently which, in the officer’s mind, casts doubt on her future willingness to leave Canada now that she has been denied permanent status here.

While the concept of dual intent -- the concept of holding a permanent and temporary intent simultaneously -- exists, officers are not required to find that it exists in every case.




Landmark decision may ease social assistance burden on sponsors

Cristina de Altamirano sponsored her mother from Argentina to Canada in 2000. In 2002, her mom had a stroke here and ended up in a nursing home.

Hamid Zebraradami sponsored his fiancée to Canada in 1999. She left him about a week after her arrival and headed straight to the nearest welfare office without telling him where she was going or that she would be applying for social assistance.

Nedzad Dzihic sponsored his fiancée in 2002. Upon arrival, she changed her mind about marrying him. She successfully appealed a deportation order and got to stay here permanently. Dzihic married another foreigner in 2006 and sponsored her. However, the sponsorship was refused because, unbeknownst to him, his first fiancée had also picked up a cheque or two from welfare authorities.

In each case, the government of Ontario provided social assistance to people who were supposed to support themselves or be supported by their Canadian sponsors. In each case, there was a failure for some reason or another to honour a signed undertaking of support that our federal immigration department relied upon when issuing an immigrant visa.

As in all sponsorship situations, our government did not concern itself with the financial resources of the relatives abroad. Instead, it concerned itself with the income of the Canadian sponsors.

Before 2002, Canada and Ontario “took few active steps to enforce sponsorship debt,” presumably because there was no procedure for sharing information between them.

By 2004, almost 7,500 sponsored relatives were on social assistance in Ontario, costing provincial taxpayers $70 million annually.

In the summer of 2005, the province started to enforce these sponsorship undertakings after having set up the Overpayment Recovery Unit.

The Ontario government crafted its training manuals with policies that seemed to be contradictory. Although its “Guiding Principles” referred to the possibility of waiving debt collection in “extraordinary circumstances,” elsewhere the manuals stated “there is no provision for negotiating a settlement less than that of the total amount.”

The three sponsors mentioned above, along with five others, sought relief from Ontario’s Superior Court on the basis of their own individual circumstances. They argued that since our immigration laws state that welfare money “may be recovered” from them, our governments thereby had the discretion to waive all or part of the debt. Further, if the court were to agree that such discretion existed, then there must be a procedure for the sponsor to explain their circumstances before they are forced to repay the money owed.

The Superior Court disagreed that such discretion existed. However, last week the Ontario Court of Appeal overturned the lower court decision and declared that the Ontario and federal governments have discretion to forgive sponsorship debt; that they have to provide sponsors in default with a process to explain their circumstances; that they must consider those circumstances; and must inform the sponsors of the decision made. The court, however, refused to order the government to notify a sponsor as soon as their sponsored relative applies for welfare.

This decision finally brings some long awaited fairness to this process.

However, don’t break out the champagne yet, since this case may end up in the Supreme Court of Canada.



– Guidy Mamann practices law in Toronto at Mamann, Sandaluk and is certified by the Law Society of Upper Canada as an immigration specialist. Reach him confidentially at 416-862-0000 or at metro@migrationlaw.com.



The Voice weekly journal issue6-5( 5-12-2009. )

http://ifile.it/kanmqgt
http://www.mediafire.com/?jjzid4jdzjt


http://www.scribd.com/doc/23689555/The-Voice-6-5-
The Voice _6-5_

4 DEC ဒိုင္ယာရီ

http://ifile.it/ypthaz2
http://www.multiupload.com/GNJAEJEIWE
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23687372/4-Dec-2009-Diary4 Dec 2009 Diary

နအဖအတြင္း ရာထူး အေျပာင္းအလဲမ်ား



ဒါ့အျပင္ ၿပီးခဲ့တဲ့ နအဖ စစ္တုိင္းမွဴးေတြရဲ႕ ယခုႏွစ္ကုန္ (၄) လပတ္ အစည္းအေဝးမွာ နအဖ အတြင္း ရာထူး အေျပာင္းအလဲတခ်ိဳ႕ လုပ္ခဲ့တယ္လို႔ သိရပါတယ္။ အဲဒီအထဲမွာ စစ္ရာထူးခန္႔ခ်ဳပ္ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ ဆန္းဆင့္၊ စစ္ဥပေဒခ်ဳပ္ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ စိုးေမာင္၊ တပ္မေတာ္ ေလ့က်င့္ေရးအရာရိွခ်ဳပ္ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ လွေဌးဝင္းတို႔ကို ဒု-ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ႀကီး အဆင့္ အသီးသီး တိုးျမႇင့္လိုက္တယ္လို႔ သိရပါတယ္။


ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ ဆန္းဆင့္ဟာ ၂ဝဝ၂ ခုႏွစ္မွာ ရန္ကုန္တိုင္း ဒု-တိုင္းမွဴး၊ ေနာက္ပိုင္း စစ္ရာထူးခန္႔ခ်ဳပ္ ျဖစ္လာသူပါ။ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္စိုးေမာင္ ဆိုရင္ ၂ဝဝ၃ မွာ အမွတ္ (၆) စကခမွဴးကေန စစ္ဥပေဒခ်ဳပ္ ျဖစ္လာပါတယ္။ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ လွေဌးဝင္းကေတာ့ ရန္ကုန္တိုင္း တိုင္းမွဴးကေန စက္တင္ဘာ အေရးအခင္းေနာက္ပိုင္း ရာထူးတက္လာသူ တဦးျဖစ္တယ္။


အလားတူ အျခားအဆင့္ေတြကိုလည္း ရာထူးတုိးေပးတာေတြ ဒီရက္ပိုင္းမွာ ရွိခဲ့တယ္လို႔ ၾကားသိရပါတယ္။ ၿပီးခဲ့တဲ့လ ၂၃ ရက္က စခဲ့တဲ့ ၄ လပတ္ အစည္းေဝးမွာ ဒီလို ရာထူးတိုးတာေတြ ရွိေနေပမယ့္ အေသးစိတ္ အတည္မျပဳႏုိင္ေသးပါဘူး။

က်ြန္ေတာ္နွင့္၀မ္းခါတိုက္ပြဲ(မန္းေရာဘတ္ဘဇန္)

http://www.naytthit.com/articals/Dec09/yawbazan%20wanka.pdf

http://ifile.it/mkd3jhi

http://www.multiupload.com/ZSSPN72SDX

yawbazan wanka

http://www.naytthit.com/

ေသနတ္ၾကားက မဲတျပား



ရဲေဘာ္ဖိုးသံေခ်ာင္း
၄ ဒီဇင္ဘာ ၂၀၀၉


၂ဝဝ၉ ခုႏွစ္ရဲ႕ေနာက္ဆံုးပိုင္းကို ေရာက္လာလို႔ ၂ဝ၁ဝ ကို မၾကာခင္ေရာက္ေတာ့မယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္ နအဖစစ္အစိုးရဟာ သူတို႔လမ္းျပေျမပံုရဲ႕ ေျခလွမ္း နံပါတ္ (၅) ျဖစ္တဲ့ ၂ဝ၁ဝ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲနဲ႔ပတ္သက္လို႔ ေကာ္မရွင္လည္းမဖြဲ႔ႏိုင္ေသး၊ ဥပေဒလည္းမေၾကညာ ႏိုင္ေသးဘူး။ ဒါ့အျပင္ ဒီေရြးေကာက္ပြဲနဲ႔ ပတ္သက္လို႔ သူတို႔ရဲ႕ အာေပါင္အာရင္းသံလွတဲ့ မီဒီယာေတြထဲမွာလည္း ေမာင္းခတ္သံ၊ ေလာ္စပီကာသံေတြ မၾကားရေသးဘဲ အလိုေတာ္ရိမ်ဳိးစံုရဲ႕ ေတာေျခာက္သံနဲ႔ သႀကၤန္အေျမာက္သံေတြသာ ၾကားေနရပါတယ္။ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲဆင္မည္းႀကီးဟာ အၿမီးမေျပာနဲ႔ ကိုယ္လံုးေတာင္ မေရာက္ေသး၊ ေခါင္းအလွ်ိဳမွာတင္ တစ္ေနပါတယ္။

အာဏာရထားပါလ်က္နဲ႔ နအဖရဲ႕ အခက္အခဲေတြက မေသးပါကလားလို႔သာ မွတ္ခ်က္ခ်ရပါေတာ့မယ္။

နအဖအေနနဲ႔ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲကိုျမန္ျမန္လုပ္၊ ျမန္ျမန္ၿပီး၊ သူတို႔ရဲ႕ ဖြဲ႔စည္းပံုအေျခခံဥပေဒ အျမန္ဆံုး အေကာင္အထည္ ေပၚသြားတာကို ျမင္ခ်င္လွတယ္ဆိုတာ ဘာမွသံသယရွိစရာမလိုပါ။ ဖြဲ႔စည္းပံုဥပေဒေနာက္ခံရွိတယ္ဆိုတဲ့ လႊတ္ေတာ္ေပၚထြက္ရင္ ႏိုင္ငံတကာအလယ္မွာ သူတုိ႔အတြက္ ဘယ့္ကေလာက္အဓိပၸာယ္ရွိတယ္ဆိုတာ သူတို႔သိပါတယ္။ ေနာက္ၿပီး အေမရိကန္၊ အီးယူတို႔နဲ႔လည္း “ျမဴေမွာင္ေဝကင္း” ဆက္ဆံႏိုင္ေတာ့မယ္လို႔ သူတို႔တြက္ပါတယ္။ ဒီေတာ့ နအဖအေနနဲ႔ ၂ဝ၁ဝ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲဟာ မျဖစ္မေန မုခ်ကို လုပ္ရေတာ့မယ့္ကိစၥျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

ဒါေပမယ့္ ျပႆနာက နအဖမွာ ထုတ္ေျပာလို႔မရတဲ့ အက်ပ္အတည္းေတြရွိပါတယ္။ အဲဒါက (၄) သိန္းအင္အား တပ္ႀကီးနဲ႔လည္း ေျဖရွင္းလို႔မရတဲ့ အက်ပ္အတည္းျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

အဲဒီအထဲက တခုကေတာ့ အမ်ဳိးသားဒီမိုကေရစီအဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္ကို ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲမွာဝင္ပါေအာင္ လုပ္လုိ႔မရတာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ သူတို႔ရဲ႕ ၂ဝ၁ဝ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲမွာ ၁၉၉ဝ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲတုန္းက မဲဆႏၵရွင္ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္း (၈ဝ) ေက်ာ္ (၉ဝ) ရဲ႕ မဲေတြရထားတဲ့ ပါတီႀကီးက ဝင္မၿပိဳင္ဘူးဆိုရင္ အေတာ္ကို အဓိပၸာယ္မဲ့သြားမယ္ဆိုတာ သူတို႔သိပါတယ္။ အထူးသျဖင့္ ႏိုင္ငံတကာအျမင္မွာ ေျပာစရာျဖစ္မွာပါ။ နအဖရဲ႕ လက္သံုးေတာ္ စာေရးဆရာမ်ားကေတာ့ ဒီခ်ဳပ္မပါလည္း ဂ႐ုစိုက္စရာ မလိုဘူးလို႔ ေျပာေကာင္းေျပာ၊ ေရးေကာင္းေရးၾကမွာပါ။ ဒါေပမယ့္ အမ်ဳိးသားဒီမိုကေရစီအဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္မပါဝင္တဲ့ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲဟာ ဘရာဇီးမပါတဲ့ ကမာၻ႔ဖလားပြဲထက္ အမ်ားႀကီး ပိုမျပည့္စံုဘူးလို႔ ေျပာႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ အမ်ဳိးသားဒီမိုကေရစီအဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္တင္းခံေနတာက ဖြဲ႔စည္းပံုအေျခခံ ဥပေဒကိစၥျဖစ္ေနေတာ့ နအဖအစိုးရအဖို႔ တျပားသားမွ ေလွ်ာ့မေပးႏိုင္တဲ့ကိစၥ ျဖစ္ေနပါတယ္။ အမ်ဳိးသားဒီမိုကေရစီအဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္ဘက္ကၾကည့္ရင္လည္း ဒါေလာက္ေလးမွ တင္းမခံရင္ သူတို႔ပါတီေရာ၊ ဗမာျပည္ရဲ႕အနာဂတ္ေရာ ေရစံုေမ်ာၿပီဆိုတာ ရွင္းေနပါတယ္။ အမ်ဳိးသားဒီမိုကေရစီအဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္က ေရႊဂံုတိုင္ေၾကညာခ်က္ကို ဆုပ္ကုိင္ထားသေရြ႕ ေ႐ြးေကာက္ပြဲထဲကို က်ဳံးသြင္းလို႔မရဘူးဆိုတာ ရွင္းေနပါတယ္။ တဖက္မွာေတာ့ အဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္ကလည္း ဒီေၾကညာခ်က္အေပၚမွာပဲ ခံတပ္ကို ခိုင္မာေအာင္တည္ေဆာက္ေနတဲ့သေဘာ ေတြ႔ရပါတယ္။ ခံတပ္တခုဟာ အတြင္းမွာစည္းလံုးညီၫြတ္ၾကမွ ခိုင္မာေတာင့္တင္းတယ္ဆိုတာ အမ်ဳိးသားဒီမိုကေရစီအဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္ေခါင္းေဆာင္ေတြ နားလည္တယ္လို႔ ယံုၾကည္ပါတယ္။

ဘာပဲေျပာေျပာ အခုေတာ့ ေရႊဂံုတိုင္ေၾကညာခ်က္ဟာ ႏွစ္ဖက္နယ္ျခားမွတ္တိုင္လိုျဖစ္ေနပါၿပီ။

ဒါေပမယ့္ အမ်ဳိးသားဒီမိုကေရစီအဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္ စီအီးစီတာဝန္ကို ေထာင္ထဲမွာ စြန္႔လႊတ္ခဲ့တဲ့ ေမာင္စူးစမ္းလိုလူကေတာ့ အမ်ဳိးသားဒီမိုကေရစီအဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္ကို ေစ်းဆစ္ႏိုင္တဲ့ အင္အားမရွိဘဲ ေစ်းမဆစ္နဲ႔လို႔ ၿခိမ္းေျခာက္ေနပါတယ္။ ဒါေၾကာင့္ တခ်ိန္က လက္နက္နဲ႔ ဒီမိုကေရစီလဲေရး စာတမ္းေရးခဲ့သူႀကီးဟာ အခုေတာ့ လက္နက္မရွိရင္ ႏိုင္ငံေရးေစ်းဆစ္အားမရွိဘူးလို႔ ေျပာေနပါကလားလို႔သာ မွတ္ခ်က္ခ်မိပါတယ္။ တကယ္က်ေတာ့ အထက္မွာ ေျပာခဲ့သလို နအဖမွာ အခက္အခဲေတြေတြ႔ရေလေလ ဒီလိုလူေတြက အတိုက္အခံေတြအေပၚ မာန္ဖီျပေလျဖစ္ေနတာပါ။

ေနာက္ျပႆနာတခုက အပစ္ရပ္အဖြဲ႔အစည္းေတြကိစၥျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ဒီအဖြဲ႔ေတြဟာ နအဖထင္သေလာက္ မီးမေသတာေတာ့ ရွင္းေနပါၿပီ။ ကိုးကန္႔ကို ႏွိပ္ကြပ္ျပလိုက္လို႔လည္း ျပႆနာက မေျပလည္ပါဘူး။ စကားအားျဖင့္ နယ္ျခားေစာင့္တပ္ဘဝကို လက္ခံတယ္လို႔ ေျပာေနၾကေပမယ့္ ေစ်းဆစ္ေနၾကပါတယ္။ ခ်ဳပ္လိုက္ရင္ သူတို႔ကလည္း ဖြဲ႔စည္းပံုအေျခခံဥပေဒျပႆနာပါပဲ။ ေညာင္ႏွစ္ပင္ညီလာခံတုန္းက အညစ္ခံထားရတာကို အပစ္ရပ္အဖြဲ႔ေတြအေနနဲ႔ အဲဒီတုန္းက ျပန္ေျပာခြင့္မသာလို႔ ငံု႔ခံခဲ့ရတာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ အခုေနာက္ဆံုးအဆင့္မွာေတာ့ သူတို႔လည္း အေမာက္ေထာင္ ျပၾကရေတာ့တာပါပဲ။

ဒီအထဲမွာ ပိုၿပီးအခရာက်တဲ့ ျပႆနာတခုကေတာ့ နအဖထိပ္သီးပိုင္းအတြင္းျပႆနာပါ။ သူတို႔ထိပ္ပိုင္းမွာ က်န္းမာေရးအရေရာ၊ အသက္အရြယ္အရပါ အေျပာင္းအလဲေတြ လုပ္ကိုလုပ္ရေတာ့မယ့္ အခ်ိန္ကိုေရာက္ေနပါၿပီ။ ဗိုလ္သန္းေရႊ၊ ဗိုလ္ေမာင္ေအးတို႔ အေနနဲ႔ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲ အေၾကာင္းျပၿပီး ထြက္ေပးလိုက္ရင္ေကာင္းမလား၊ ဒါမွမဟုတ္ ေ႐ြးေကာက္ပြဲၿပီးေအာင္အထိ ေစာင့္ၾကည့္ၿပီးမွ ထြက္ေပးၾကမလား ဆံုးျဖတ္ရ ခက္ေနၾကပါတယ္။ စစ္အုပ္စုေတြရဲ႕ထံုးစံအတိုင္း တပ္နဲ႔ကင္းကြာသြားမွာကို သူတို႔အားလံုးလန္႔ၾကပါတယ္။ ဘာေကာင္ႀကီးျဖစ္ေနေန တပ္နဲ႔ ကင္းကြာလို႔ကေတာ့ သုညဘဝ ေရာက္တာပဲဆိုတာ သူတို႔အသိဆံုးပါ။ ဦးေနဝင္း ေသပန္းမလွခဲ့တာကို သူတို႔မေမ့ပါဘူး။ သူတို႔သာ လက္ရွိရာထူးေတြကို စြန္႔လႊတ္လိုက္ရရင္ လက္ရွိစည္းစိမ္ေတြဟာလည္း ေရပြက္ပမာ ျဖစ္လိမ့္မယ္ဆိုတာ သူတို႔ေကာင္းေကာင္း သေဘာေပါက္ပါတယ္။ ခက္တာက ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲဆိုတာႀကီး ၿပီးသြားလို႔မွ တိုင္းျပည္ေခါင္းေဆာင္ဆိုတဲ့ထိပ္ပိုင္းမွာ ဒီမ်က္ခြက္ႀကီးေတြပဲ ျပန္ေတြ႔ေနရရင္ လူရီစရာျဖစ္မယ္ဆိုတာကိုလည္း ဒီဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ေတြ မစဥ္းစားလို႔မျဖစ္ပါဘူး။

ဒါျဖင့္ ငါလည္းထြက္မယ္၊ မင္းလည္းထြက္ဆိုၿပီး ဥပမာ ဗိုလ္ေရႊမန္းလိုလူကို အာဏာလႊဲေပးလိုက္ရင္ေရာ သူတို႔ထဲမွာ တည္တည္ ၿငိမ္ၿငိမ္ရွိပါ့မလား။ ဗိုလ္သန္းေရႊဟာ ဗိုလ္ေနဝင္းေလာက္ သူတို႔တပ္ထဲမွာ ၾသဇာမရွိတာေတာ့အမွန္ပါ (ဒါေၾကာင့္လည္း အခုသူတို႔အထဲမွာ ဗိုလ္သန္းေရႊ ျဖစ္ေစခ်င္သလို ျဖစ္ေအာင္လုပ္လို႔ မရေသးတာျဖစ္ပါတယ္)။ ဒါေပမယ့္ ေနာက္လူေတြက သူ႔ေလာက္မွမီးမေသရင္ ပိုၿပီး ကေသာင္းကနင္း ျဖစ္ကုန္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ အလြယ္ဆံုးေျပာရရင္ ဗိုလ္ေရႊမန္းဟာ ဦးေအာင္ေသာင္းကို အာ…မခံေအာင္ လုပ္ႏိုင္ပါ့မလား။ တျခားလည္း သူတို႔ထဲမွာ အဲဒီလို တေယာက္အေပၚတေယာက္ ႏိုင္ေပါက္ကိုကိုင္ၿပီး ပခံုးခ်င္းတိုင္းေနၾကတာေတြ အမ်ားႀကီးရွိပါတယ္။

ဒီလိုအေျခအေနမ်ဳိးေတြၾကားမွာ နအဖစစ္အစိုးရက ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲက်င္းပမယ့္ရက္ကိုလည္း မေၾကညာႏိုင္၊ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲဥေပဒဆိုတာလည္း ထုတ္မေျပာႏိုင္ျဖစ္ေနေတာ့ ဒီခ်ဳပ္အခက္ ဒို႔အကြက္ဆိုၿပီး ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲဝင္ဖို႔ခဲထားသူေတြ၊ ဗမာျပည္သားေတြကို ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲမွာ မဲေပးနည္း သင္တန္းေပးမယ္လို႔ အားခဲထားသူေတြ၊ ဒီေရြးေကာက္ပြဲကေနေပၚလာတဲ့ “စေပ့စ္” ထဲမွာ ေမ်ာက္က…ကရမယ္လို႔ တရားေဟာေနသူေတြ အားလံုးပဲ စိတ္မရွည္ႏိုင္ေအာင္ ျဖစ္လာၾကပါတယ္။ ေနာက္ၿပီး သူတို႔မွာ ေျပာစရာေတြကလည္း ကုန္လာတယ္ဆိုေတာ့ ေစာင့္႐ံုမွတပါး အျခားမရွိလို ျဖစ္လာပါေတာ့တယ္။ ဒီလိုနဲ႔ တခ်ဳိ႕ကေတာ့ နအဖကိုေတာင္ ေစာင္းပါးရိပ္ျခည္၊ ခ်ိတ္ၿပီးေဝဖန္တာေတြ ေတြ႔လာရပါတယ္။

ျပန္ခ်ဳပ္ပါ့မယ္။ အခက္အခဲဟာ တဖက္တည္းမွာ ရွိေနတာမဟုတ္ပါဘူး။ အားလံုးမွာရွိေနတာပါ။ အတိုက္အခံေတြမွာခ်ည့္ အခက္အခဲေတြ႔ေနရတယ္၊ အေမရိကန္ရဲ႕ ယက္ေတာသံတမန္ေရးေၾကာင့္ ဗမာျပည္ႏိုင္ငံေရးေျပာင္းသြားၿပီဆိုၿပီး ကိုယ့္ႏိုင္ငံေရးဘဝတခုလံုးကို ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲထဲမွာ ပံုေအာလိုက္တာမ်ဳိးလည္း မလုပ္သင့္ပါဘူး။

၂ဝ၁ဝ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲကို ဆန္႔က်င္ရင္ ဒီမိုက္ေရစီ ပိုေဝးသြားမယ္လို႔ တခ်ဳိ႕ကဆိုေနပါတယ္။ အဲဒီလိုေျပာေနသူေတြထဲမွာ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲမလုပ္ဘဲ နအဖဆက္မင္းမူေနရင္ ဒီမိုကေရစီနဲ႔ ပိုေဝးလိမ့္မယ္လို႔ ေစတနာေကာင္းနဲ႔ စိုးရိမ္သူမ်ားလည္း ပါပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္ ၂ဝဝ၈ အေျခခံဥပေဒနဲ႔ ဒီမိုကေရစီကို ရယူမယ္ဆိုတာက ေပါက္ေနတဲ့ ေရဘူးနဲ႔ ေရပါေအာင္ ယူမယ္ဆိုတာထက္ေတာင္ဆိုးပါတယ္။ ‘ထိုင္ေနအေကာင္းသား’ မုခ်ျဖစ္မွာပါ။
http://www.khitpyaing.org/articles/Dec09/041209.php

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